After a month, a small series of minuscule—yet glorious!—moments from Sendai:
So let’s get rich and buy our parents homes in the south of France
Published 18 November 2008 Uncategorized 0 CommentsThe State of the 2008 Election (hope you like maps)
Published 30 October 2008 Barack Obama , Politics 0 CommentsTags: Barack Obama, Election, John McCain, Politics
A few maps for you going into the weekend before the election. As I called months ago, it appears that Obama’s going to breeze to victory. The first map is a whole-hog ‘best case’ scenario for Obama. This includes the idea that pollsters are radically underselling Democratic turnout in states like West Virginia. This is a Nixon-esque sweep, the chance of which happening I place around 5%.
The second map is a more likely best case scenario. This one is supported by current polls, but is still fairly unlikely. I’d say this exact map or better is something like 10% possible.
The third map is what I consider the ‘worst case’ for Obama. It includes McCain picking up most of the tossup states, and Obama reduced to only the states he’s currently up HUGE in the polls.
Now, this next map is brought to us by Rasmussen Reports, who just now put out this report on the current state of the election. In this report, they give the election to Obama 364-184. But more interestingly, they say
“These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.” So, I took their map, and removed any state they considered ‘close.’ Obama still wins the election with 273 electoral votes. Here’s that map:
The last map is my own personal map, just based on my feeling from current polls, the ground game, and the overall movement of the country. Feel free to consider this ‘Gregory’s Official Prediction.’ Unless something huge happens over the weekend, this is how I’m calling it.
K, bonus time.
SENATE PREDICTIONS
Alaska: Belich (D) [Stevens can't win post-conviction, and Rasmussen's new poll confirms that]
Minnesota: Coleman (R) [I really think the Barkley voters are going to break for Coleman]
North Carolina: Hagen (D) [Dole's campaign was too little, too late, and this is a good time to be 1. not an incumbent and 2. a Democrat]
Georgia: Martin (D) [I agree with FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver that undecided blacks are going to vote for the Democrat]
Kentucky: McConnell (R) [Ignore what I just said about incumbents and Democrats]
Mississippi: Musgrove (R) [Ditto]
So I’m predicting a 57(+2)—41 Senate. Oh, and Hayes will lose to Kissell. That one’s free.
Oh, how a week changes things. The map as it currently stands:
McCain now needs to turn Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, AND Florida, and take Missouri and North Carolina, or he stands no chance of winning. Quite a feat for a nominee who has been sliding in the polls since the beginning of the campaign, aside from a slight, quick, convention bump.
Tipping Point States
Published 25 September 2008 Barack Obama , John McCain , Politics 1 CommentTags: Barack Obama, Election, John McCain, Politics
So here’s the election as it currently looks, giving the benefit of close swing states to McCain:
Nightmare scenario. A 269/269 goes basically to Obama, but it means weeks of lawsuits.
The question here is whether or not Obama can turn one of the following—what I’m calling—’Tipping Point States.’ These are Nevada (47.2 JM/45.7 BO), Ohio (47.6/44.7), Virginia (47.9/46.9), North Carolina (47.6/44.3), Florida (48.4/45), and New Hampshire (47.6/46.4). If he can turn just one of them, Obama gets a win. All of them, and it’s a virtual landslide.
(the poll numbers—which I don’t particularly agree with—come from 10pm, 9/24/08, http://www.pollster.com)
Inspired by @aimeeisdrawing, I made pretzels tonight.
Sarah Palin and the Bridge to Nowhere
Published 30 August 2008 Uncategorized 2 CommentsTags: Bridge to Nowhere, John McCain, Sarah Palin
John McCain’s new choice for Vice President is being painted as a pork-barrel blasting Washington outsider who will help McCain bring much-needed change to the White House. A large part of this narrative was this claim by (twenty-month Alaska governor) Sarah Palin, yesterday, at the announcement:
I signed major ethics reforms, and I appointed both Democrats and independents to serve in my administration. And I’ve championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. In fact, I told Congress thanks, but no thanks, on that “Bridge to Nowhere.” If our state wanted a bridge, I said, we’d build it ourselves. (1)
But let’s look at that claim. On August 29, 2008, she says she told Congress “no thanks” on money for the bridge. But what did she actually say at the time? It took a bit of digging, but with the help of Google Cache, I found her office’s press release from September 21, 2007.
Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about $329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,” Governor Palin added.(2)
“Despite the work of our congressional delegation”? But I thought she told Congress no thanks! Still, this could be interpreted as ‘the congressional delegation wanted it, but I didn’t.’ So let’s go earlier for a quote. October 22, 2006, Palin was asked:
Would you continue state funding for the proposed Knik Arm and Gravina Island bridges?”
Her response was solid:
Yes. I would like to see Alaska’s infrastructure projects built sooner rather than later. The window is now - while our congressional delegation is in a strong position to assist.” (3)
The implication is clear. Governor Palin wanted Alaska’s congressional delegation to get Federal funding for the Bridge to Nowhere. When they were unable to secure full funding, she canceled the project, willing only to spend Federal money on the bridge, not State money.
But now she’s spinning a web of lies in a new story invented by McCain’s campaign. In this story, she was a courageous anti-pork governor, who, when Congress came wanting to give her money, she stood at the door, blocking their entrance.
This is supported by no evidence.
Footnotes:
Katy Perry - I Kissed A Girl - Summer Song 2008
Published 26 July 2008 Entertainment , Music 1 CommentTags: dark knight, katy perry, summer song
Making an (increasingly seldom) blog post to go ahead and state that Katy Perry’s single ‘I Kissed A Girl’ is Summer Song 2008. And deservedly so. I’ve been jamming ‘One of the Boys’ since the beginning of June, and it really is a great record. I’ll be interested to see if the single can stay on the charts deep into August, but her hard sales and iTunes sales seem to be showing no signs of declining.
The Dark Knight? Yeah, best superhero film ever. I saw it at the IMAX Dome theater in Charlotte, and am planning to see it in a regular IMAX theater in Raleigh next month. I’m not sure if I even want to bother with the film in 35mm, as the experience in IMAX was so mind-blowing.
So I’m looking for buy one of the old iPhones, the 2G version. So I go trawling Craiglist to see if anyone’s selling them at a fair price. I come across one listing, which I’ll post here:
Want to trade my 8GB iPhone (South Charlotte)
Date: 2008-07-14, 11:25AM EDT
looking to trade or sell a used 8GB iPhone. The screen is immaculate. The Back of it is scuffed up from normal use. There is a nice hard shell leather case that comes with it that hides all the scratches, so it looks brand new!!!! It is unlocked to use with any sim card, it is jailbroken to put 3rd party apps on it, and activated so all you have to do is put your sim card in and start using it. Phone and Sync cable only. Asking $350 or would like to hear offers for a trade. Looking for electronics. Maybe a PS3 or a Wii or something like that.
Now, $350 seems a little high, as I can walk into an Apple store today and get a brand new 3G iPhone for only $200. Granted, I’ll have to sign a contract, but I plan on getting at least two years of service anyway, so it’s not a big deal. But to be fair to the guy, I e-mail him my offer instead of just moving on.
from Gregory Harbin
reply-to gregoryharbin@gmail.com
to sale-754403545@craigslist.org
date Mon, Jul 14, 2008 at 4:22 PM
subject iPhoneGood day to you!
I’m interested in spending $150 on an old iPhone. I believe that price to be fair, as the new iPhone only costs $200.
I have an Xbox 360, but it is fully-functional, and cost $350, well over the price of an iPhone, so I can’t see trading it for a lesser item.
But like I said, $150 is what I’m offering for used 8GB iPhones, and I don’t think you’ll get a better offer. Let me know.
-Gregory Harbin
http://www.gregoryharbin.com
Within minutes, MINUTES, so this guy must have a lot of time on his hands, I get this response:
from John Santiago <mavsrbad21@gmail.com>
to gregoryharbin@gmail.com
date Mon, Jul 14, 2008 at 4:25 PM
subject Re: iPhonehaha, you’re a ****ing [my edit] idiot! I actually have gotten a lot of better
offers. I actually traded it today for an iPod nano video and $250
cash. Don’t email people telling them they won’t get a better offer
when you are the one trying to buy it. It’s ok to do that if you are
selling something, but not buying something, you just made yourself
look retarded. Good day to you!
Seriously. All I do is offer this guy money for the thing he’s selling, which is what I think Craiglist is for, and for my troubles, I get insulted. Oh, and then he sends another e-mail:
from John Santiago <mavsrbad21@gmail.com>
to gregoryharbin@gmail.com
date Mon, Jul 14, 2008 at 4:26 PM
subject Re: iPhoneand your blogs suck ass!
So, this guy’s a real genius. But honestly. This is why these Internet sales companies won’t work the way they’re set up now. There’s too much perceived anonymity for people not to act like complete morons.
Script Review: Indiana Jones and the City of the Gods (2003)
Published 12 June 2008 Entertainment 1 CommentTags: frank darabont, george lucas, harrison ford, indiana jones, kingdom of the crystal skull, steven spielberg
Background: Frank Darabont (Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile) was hired by George Lucas to write a script for the fourth Indiana Jones film back in 2003. He was one of I believe six writers to do so between 1992 and 2007, a list which includes Chris Columbus (Harry Potter), M. Night Shyamalan (Sixth Sense), and Jeb Stuart (Die Hard). The finished film, written by David Koepp, was a mashing-together of all the previous scripts into a kind-of cohesive whole.
(Darabont’s thoughts on the experience can be found here: http://www.mtv.com/movies/news/articles/1557263/story.jhtml )
Okay, so I finished reading Frank Darabont’s Indy 4 script. I’ve also read the Jeb Stuart script (…and the Saucer Men From Mars), which I really liked, but understand why Steve and Harrison didn’t want to do it. I would link to the script, but the site hosting it has been brought down by the hosting company. E-mail me if you’d like to see it.
In the end, City of the Gods feels like an Indy fan film to me. Too many call-backs to earlier films (TWO times Yuri references the TAG-LINE from ‘Doom’!, the idol/sand bag swap, etc.). The first two acts seemed like Darabont was just interested in winking at the audience rather than telling a story.
Until the climax. Once they get to the Ciudad de los Dios, I’m TOTALLY with the script. Indy shooting the skull between the eyes has to be the most awesome thing ever. I think I prefer this climax to that of any of the other films, including Raiders.
Still, Yuri was a weak character, the fifty villains were awful, especially compared to Blanchett’s amazing Spalko. And I really missed Shia’s Mutt, especially for the long stretch of the film where Indy is wandering around by HIMSELF.
And there were a ton of things stylistically wrong, such as subtitled dialog, and scenes which Indy wasn’t there to witness. You almost wonder if Darabont had ever seen an Indy film before in his life, until he references ‘Temple’ again on the next page.
But in all, I think this script could have made a better film than the one we ended up, which for the record I do like. Darabont, given the following notes, could have written another draft that would be phenomenal.
1. Indy needs a sidekick. Maybe a son?
2. Reduce the villains. Give us a single interesting one that we can cast as name as.
3. Maybe have Indy visit the hanger from ‘Raiders’ at the beginning?
4. Rewrite Yuri as less annoying.
5. Lessen the fantastical bits, such as Oxley swinging from ropes and Indy being eaten by a snake (and keep Indy afraid of snakes, it’s part of his character).
6. Keep references to the earlier films down to one or two. Remember that the audience is there to see THIS film, not the earlier ones.
